Research Goal 16

Email: pmsdg@unilorin.edu.ng

THE USE OF MATHEMATICAL MODELLING IN SOLVING TERRORISM A CASE STUDY OF NIGERIA

ADAMU, GAMBO

(17/68DR001)

April 2023

In Nigeria as a society, the issue of terrorism has become a common problem. Both gov- ernment and non-governmental organization have been putting effort to curb the menace. Most researchers laid more emphasis on the use of fire approach to eliminate terrorism in Nigeria however, the present study aimed at proposing the use of mathematical modelling in solving terrorism as a case study in Nigeria development. The objectives of the study were to: (i) develop four new deterministic models; (ii) obtain the region of free terrorist state as well as the region where terrorist exist; (iii) conduct sensitivity analysis to deter- mine the most sensitive parameters; (iv) conduct the optimal control analysis to determine which of the strategies is the best to curb terrorism; (v) compute the basic reproductive numbers using graph-theoretic and next generation matrix methods; and (vi) solve the deterministic models numerically.

Methodology of mathematical modelling was applied to develop the deterministic models. The models formulated focused on Digraph reduction Method and an algorithm for calculating the basic reproduction number, Elzaki Transform Method (ETM) with Differ- ential Transform Methods (DTM) to handle the non-linear terms. Numerical simulation using Runge-Kutta fourth order method was employed to solve optimal control forward and backward solutions and present the results.

The findings of the study were that:

• four deterministic models of terrorism were constructed which proffered under -standing to the study;
• regions of free terrorism and terrorism endemic were analyzed;

• the most sensitive parameters are unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), political will, media campaign and intelligence gathering;

• from graphs of optimal control, the use of drone, porosity in the borders, informants and forest land are the main integrated control strategies needed to achieve free or reduction in terrorism in Nigeria;
• it was deduced from the use of graph theoretic method that the computation of reproduction number is faster than the use of next generation matrix method; and
• the comparison between the DTM and ETM using the numerical simulations shows very close agreement in the values between the two methods used.

The study concluded that employing the combined controls strategies such as intelligence and use of unmanned aerial vehicles, media campaign, porosity of borders are the best to eradicate terrorism in the society. The study recommended that all four models be adopted for controlling terrorism in the society.

         A STUDY OF THE INFLUENCE OF SOCIAL MEDIA ON THE 2015 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN NIGERIA

ALEBIOSU, Emmanuel Niran

May 2023

Social media has become a dominant political communication tool in the contemporary global democratic process, especially during elections. In Nigeria, the intensive and extensive use of social media was observed during the 2015 presidential election, where an opposition party defeated the ruling party. This has never happened in the history of Nigeria’s electoral democracy, yet it has not been fully explored. This study, therefore, examined the influence of social media on the 2015 presidential election in Nigeria. The objectives of the study were to: (i) investigate the most influential social media platform in Nigeria during the 2015 presidential election; (ii) assess the role of social media in the 2015 presidential electoral campaigns; (iii) determine whether social media influenced voters’ choices of presidential candidates during the 2015 presidential election; and (iv) examine the challenges posed by the use of social media during the 2015 presidential election.   

The study adopted a mixed-methods research design. The population comprised 29,432,083 registered voters in the 2015 presidential election in Nigeria. A purposeful sampling technique was used to select 409 respondents. Primary data were collected through 25 interviews and 384 copies of a questionnaire. The instrument was validated using the content validity method, while its reliability was determined through an internal constituency reliability of 0.70 using the Kuder-Richardson formula 20 (KR-20) index. The data were analysed using descriptive statistical techniques of percentage and content analysis. Hypotheses were tested using Chi-square at a 0.05 level of significance.

The findings of the study were that:

i.   during the 2015 presidential election, Facebook (60%) was found to be more influential than Twitter (30%);

ii.  social media played a relative role in voter mobilisation (45%), political dialogue and engagement (35%), and especially among the youth (60%), during the 2015 presidential electoral campaigns in Nigeria;

iii.  social media was found to have some degree of influence among voters (50%) in their choice of candidates during the 2015 presidential election (X² = 758.47>7.82); and

iv.   misinformation, hate speech, and fake news constituted major challenges posed by the use of social media during the 2015 presidential election.

The study concluded that social media (particularly Facebook and Twitter) was a double-edged political communication tool in Nigeria’s presidential election. Therefore, the study recommended that the national assembly make a law to regulate the use of social media within the electoral process in Nigeria.

IMPACT OF CITIZEN DIPLOMACY ON NIGERIA’S FOREIGN POLICY, 2007-2010

ALIU, Fatima Omotayo 02/66MF252

May, 2023

Since independence in 1960, Nigeria has adopted numerous foreign policy thrusts based on the specific interests of the governing elites in the country. For Instance, the Yar’adua administration based on ill-treatment of Nigerians by some foreign countries introduced Citizen Diplomacy in 2007 as a new foreign policy thrust. It was intended to address all the problems that Nigerian citizens suffered in the hands of foreign governments and their citizens. This study assessed impact of Citizens Diplomacy on Nigeria’s foreign policy thrust under President Umaru Yara’Adua 2007-2010. The objectives of the study were to: (i) examine the circumstances that led to the adoption of Citizen Diplomacy under Yar’Adua’s administration; (ii) assess the impact of Citizen Diplomacy on Nigeria’s foreign policy under Yar’Adua’s administration, especially on the activities of Nigerian diplomatic missions; and (iii) examine the challenges faced by Nigeria in pursuing Citizen Diplomacy from 2007 to 2010.

The study adopted the mixed method research design. It utilized both qualitative and quantitative techniques. The primary data were sourced using key informant interviews (KIIs), while the secondary data were sourced from government publications and research works of scholars. The study employed the structured interview method to validate the information gathered through the official channels. Seventy-seven interviews were conducted with respondents drawn from the Foreign Service personnel, victims of maltreatment, foreign policy experts and Nigerians travelling abroad at the International Airports (Muritala International Airport Lagos, Nnamdi Azikwe International Airport Abuja and Port Harcourt International Airport). The data were analyzed using the content analysis technique and simple percentage methods.

The findings of the study were that:

• the circumstances that led to the adoption of Citizen Diplomacy were repeated attacks and the ill-treatment on Nigerians who visited/lived in some other  countries such as South Africa, Malaysia and Indonesia among others. For instance, 62 were killed in the April 2006 xenophobic attack on black nationals in South Africa which led to the adoption of Citizen Diplomacy in 2007;

• citizen Diplomacy had impacted positively on the diplomatic missions, though not overwhelmingly. For Instance, out of the 77 respondents interviewed, 58% agreed that  Citizen Diplomacy had impacted positively on Nigeria embassies; and
• poor funding was the major issue that affected Citizen Diplomacy under Yar’Adua’s administration; For Instance, 57(74%) of the respondents ranked it as the challenge that hindered the effectiveness of the policy.

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The study concluded that Citizen Diplomacy as a thrust of Nigerian foreign policy created awareness on the ill-treatment of Nigerians abroad and tried to solve some of the problems faced by Nigerians who lived abroad. It was not effective in addressing the complaint of Nigerians on ill-treatment they suffered. The study recommended that the Federal Government should enlighten Nigerian missions to paying more attentions to the plight of Nigerians in Diaspora, especially by interceding on their behalf.

AN ANALYSIS OF THE FACTORS THAT SHAPED THE OUTCOME OF THE 2011 GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION IN KWARA STATE

ABUBAKAR, Abdulrahman

96/045253

FEBRUARY, 2022

The 2011 gubernatorial election in Kwara State, aroused so much interest, especially as it was an election in which the father and son followed different political trajectories. The father, Dr. Olusola Saraki was in support of his daughter, Gbemisola Saraki, who had contested on the platform of the Allied Congress Party of Nigeria, while the son, Dr. Bukola Saraki was the main campaigner for Abdulfatai Ahmed of the PDP. This, no doubt, raised the stakes about the election. Several factors have been given for the electoral Outcome. This study, sought to identify the main factors that explained the 2011 Gubernatorial Election in Kwara State. The objectives of the study were to: (i) examine the charged political environment that preceded the 2011 gubernatorial election in Kwara State (ii) examine how the charged political environment had affected the character of the election; and (iii) identify and rank the factors that had influenced the victory of PDP  at the 2011 gubernatorial poll.

The study adopted a mixed-method research design. The population of the study comprised 1,140,094 registered voters for 2011 elections in Kwara State, out of which proportionate sampling technique was used to select 50 respondents across the three Senatorial Districts based on the population sizes of the respective Senatorial districts. Key Informants Interviews (KIIs) were conducted to collect primary data which were complemented with secondary data such as official election results from INEC. The interview method was used to validate the secondary data. The data were analysed using content analysis and simple percentage to rank the factors on a scale of 1-6 where 1 is considered ‘most significant’ and 6 as ‘least significant.

The findings of the study were that:

1. i.          the uniqueness of the 2011 gubernatorial election in Kwara State was revealed by the kind of atmosphere that preceded it. There was indeed a political disagreement between Dr. Olushola Saraki and Dr. Bukola Saraki on the choice of candidate and the platform;
2. ii.         the charged political environment caused by the political feud between the father, Dr. Olushola Saraki, and the son, Dr. Bukola Saraki, not only affected the family but also polarized the members of the political dynasty; and
3. iii.        the 2011 gubernatorial election in Kwara State was shaped by factors such as incumbency factor that ranked 1^st (37%), vote buying that ranked 2^nd (19%), while the Personality factor ranked 3^rd (15%).

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The study concluded that the 2011 Gubernatorial Election in Kwara State created a tense atmosphere  as members of the same political dynasty rose against themselves based on their political preferences. In view of this development, the study recommended that more efforts should be made to educate and enlighten electorates by the National Orientation Agency (NOA) so that they would know the danger of compromising their electoral rights through vote buying and receiving political dictations from their political leaders.